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All eyes will be on the AFC East this weekend when the 9-4 Buffalo Bills look to snap the 11-2 New England Patriots' 10-game winning streak and get within one game of the division leaders with three weeks to go. After a rocky 1-2 start, the Pats have taken care of business, including beating the Bills in Buffalo back in Week 5. Buffalo is 5-3 since then and needs a win this week to have any shot at winning its sixth straight AFC East title. 

Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. The Bills are 1.5-point favorites, per the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds from DraftKings, while the over/under for total points scored is 50.5. Before making any Bills vs. Patriots picks of your own, make sure to look at the top NFL picks from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. 

Where to watch Bills vs. Patriots on Sunday

When: Sunday, Dec. 14
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Stream: Paramount+  
Follow along: CBS Sports App

Bills vs. Patriots betting preview

Odds: Bills -1.5, over/under 50.5

The Bills may be 9-4 overall this season, but they're just 6-7 against the spread and to the Over this year. The Patriots have been much better ATS at 9-4, and they're also 7-6 to the Over. The Patriots won and covered in the last matchup between these two teams in Week 5, and the 23-20 final score was Under the total of 48.5.

Bills vs. Patriots SGP

Bet it at DraftKings:

Model's Bills vs. Patriots score prediction, picks

The Bills enter Foxboro as slight favorites on the spread, though New England won by three as 7.5-point underdogs in Buffalo in Week 5. The SportsLine Projection Model has this game effectively as a pick 'em, with each team covering in 50% of simulations and New England winning outright 49% of the time as a slight money line underdog. The model does like the Over, with that side of the total hitting 53% of the time.

Bills vs. Patriots score prediction: Patriots 27, Bills 26

Want more Week 15 NFL picks?

You've seen the model's best bets for Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every Week 15 NFL game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times.